Bill’s Lost Site

A real interesting article written over on the Lost Blog that discusses whether pushing the button is simply an experiment or if the button actually does something.

One of the better articles on this really important topic. The article can be accessed HERE. Here is a brief excerpt to give you a flavor for the excellent writing:

How to decide then? In decision theory, especially when faced with a decision to be made under uncertainty, the rational procedure is to identify all possible outcomes, determine their values (positive or negative) and the probabilities that will result from each course of action, and multiply the two to give an expected value. The action to be chosen should be the one that gives rise to the highest total expected value.

This was invoked by the famous French mathematician and philospher Blaise Pascal, in what has come to be known as Pascal’s wager. Basically, Pascal’s uncertainty was the existence of God. Belief or non-belief in God is the decision to be made. Pascal posited that the reward for belief in God if God actually does exist is infinite. Therefore, however small the probability of God’s existence, the expected value of belief exceeds that of non-belief, so it is better to believe in God.

And so on … give the article a shot. I think you will really enjoy it! Thanks Job for the great ideas.

This will come as a total shock but I have discovered the only way Sun could have become pregnant - she slept with her husband.

If you don’t buy that theory then here are some others:

1. Sun cheated on her husband with either Baldy or someone on the island
If it was Baldy then she was pregnant for several months before realizing it. Possible but I doubt it. Baldy didn’t show any interest in her in the past and while I’m sure he found Sun attractive he had eyes for a girl he met at Havard. As for Sun being with anyone else on the island … nothing to support theory.

2. Doctor was wrong - she could always have babies
The opening scene sure made it seem like Sun and Jin were trying for a kid. Wonder why it didn’t happen. On top of that you have the issue with the doctor then having to make a mistake. While this is possible I don’t find it likely.

3. The Island got her pregnant
Something in the water … or over at the Fuselage someone posted about Dharma genetically modifying the fish that the Losties catch so that Sun could get pregnant. Wouldn’t bet on this theory being true.

Which leaves us with ….

Sun and Jin’s flashback being a fabrication. There is nothing wrong with Sun or Jin. By controlling their memories Sun and Jin now believe that there is a “miracle” on the island. Sound familiar? Remember Locke - from day 1 he was driven to understand the island because he really believed that he was paralyzed. Lands on the island and poof - his legs are working just fine.

So, while you are free to believe in immaculate conception I’m going with memory implants for my theory.

The mobile was playing the song “To Catch a Falling Star”. That song also happened to be the one that Claire requested that Aaron’s adoptive parents sing to him (way back in early season 1). It was a favorite from Claire’s childhood.

My guess - it wasn’t a favorite. Just another planted memory. But I digress …

In the 2nd flashback scene we see Zeke and Ethan having it out. Zeke makes a reference to the fact that “He” is going to have to change plans because Claire was abducted prior to the list being made up. Now we don’t know who “He” is for sure but we can assume that it is someone high up the Dharma foodchain.

Anyway, it wouldn’t surprise me if the original plan was simply to remove the baby and send Claire back or wait for Claire to have the baby naturally and send her back. However, that plan was scrapped for the more immediate c-section and die on the table approach.

Ethan goes out of his way to be nice to Claire. He explains the plan for taking the baby and sending Claire back. Why would he lie? Claire was so doped up that she wouldn’t have cared what was going on. Ethan could have said that they were going to leave her to die on the operation table and she would have giggled about it and said “OK”.

For the sake of argument let’s say that this is correct. What’s the significance? Well, my guess is that we will find out later that Ethan wasn’t really a bad guy. Misguided, yes. Duped, absolutely. Sincerely trying to do what he thinks is best - I think so. There is a common theme in several Lost episodes - “The Greater Good”. I think that when all is said and done, many of the folks at Dharma will fall into this misguided justification. Many will believe that while there are sacrifices being made that is really a small price to pay for the advancements Dharma is making.

Only time will tell if this theory plays out.

For those that are new to my blog let me take a second to explain one of my general theories.

I don’t believe the plane crashed. I don’t believe in most of the flashback sequences. I believe that everything people recall are simply planted memories by the folks that run the island. For more background on this theory click the category called “Psychology” for my other posts on this topic.

Anyway, I was initially bummed out when I watched this episode. The first 2 flashback scenes really appeared to throw a wrench into my theory. The first flashback sequence appears to be Claire’s first introduction to Ethan. The next flashback has Claire asking about Charley.

Here’s the problem … in Season 1 Claire had dreams that coincided with what we saw as her flashbacks in this episode. Now, those dreams can be one of two things. Either they were memories of something that happened in the past or they are visions of the future things to come.

This episode tricked the audience into believing that Claire had some sort of view into the future. However, that is not true.

Claire’s first flashback scene with Ethan occurs BEFORE she was abducted. This initial meeting took place before they were placed on the beach after the “crash”. What Claire was dreaming about was a memory. Claire’s demeanor is totally different in the 1st flashback than it is in the next set of flashbacks.

However, the 2nd set of flashbacks do occur after she is taken by Ethan. Here she is heavily sedated and definitely under the influence of some serious drugs (on a side note - it would be interesting to see what types of drugs could someone who is 9 months pregnant take that would be that potent - my experience is that when the wife gets pregnant she can’t take aspirin without first calling the doctor).

Anyway, what started out as something that I thought was going to totally debunk my theory actually ended up solidifying it. Now, more than ever, I am convinced that Claire and the other Losties were never in a plane crash, that their memories are fabricated, and that they are being manipulated at every turn by Hanso.

*** Updated ***

I knew there was something else. Back in season 1 when Claire has her really weird dream she is led to a crib. Over the crib is a mobile. Guess what kind of mobile - yup - airplanes. Just like the one used in her dream. Again, either Claire can see into the future or she is taking aspects from her first encounter with Ethan and mixing them with fears/anxiety to come up with bizarre dreams.

There were 5 major flashback sequences. Below are my notes from each flashback.

Flashback #1
Ethan is playing doctor. He asks Claire about her last check-up. He asks why she is flying and Claire explains about the adoption. Ethan goes to the medicine cabinet and unlocks it with a key attached to a Dharma keychain. He says that he is getting “Medicine for the baby.”

For those paying attention you will notice that the medicine is labled exactly the same as the medicine that Desmond was using in his hatch. The name of the medicine does not appear … however, The Numbers are listed on each bottle.

Claire appears to be calm but not nearly as loopy as she is in her next set of flashbacks.

Flashback #2
Claire is injected again and appears to be much more out of it. Ethan decides to give Claire a special treat by taking her to the nursery. On the way to the nursery Claire walks by a short door labled “Escape Hatch” and then passes the bunker entrance that she later discovers.

In the nursery Claire asks about Charlie. This reference tells us that the 2nd flashback occured after Ethan took both Claire and Charlie. We don’t know for sure when the 1st flashback took place. Click HERE for more on that.

Claire then plays with a mobile of airplanes. It looks like all of the airplanes are replicas of the Oceanic Airlines planes. They carry the same general logo pattern and colors.

While Claire is playing with the toy planes Ethan gets a visit from clean shaven Zeke. Zeke has a couple of interesting comments.

First he says, “You were supposed to make the list and then bring her in.”

Next he says, “What am I supposed to tell him. You know what he’s going to want to do when he finds out.”

The “list” comment ties back to Goodwin’s conversation with Ana Lucia about having names on a list. As for “him” - I can guess that he is talking about Degroot (that’s if Zeke isn’t Degroot) or Hanso himself.

Flashback #3
Ethan takes Claire out for a walk. Claire again is very loopy. Ethan gives Claire something to drink. Claire comments that it is sour. Ethan does not drink out of the canteen. Immediately after drinking the “water” Claire’s baby kicks. Was there something in the “water” that is designed to get Claire’s baby active?

Ethan says, “I’m going to miss you. I wish you didn’t have to go.” Claire suggests that maybe she doesn’t have to go. Ethan’s response was something like, “You know there is not enough vaccine for you and the baby.” Ethan then tells Claire that once the baby is born she can go back to her friends at camp and hopefully she won’t get sick. How sweet.

The weirdest part for me was Ethan’s insistence that Claire consent to giving up the child. He makes it sound like it is her choice. Not sure why Claire’s imput matters at all. It was almost like he had to have her consent in order to legally take her child. Hmmm. “You have a choice” was Ethan’s exact words.

Flashback #4
Short flashback with what I now think is Alex - Danielle’s daughter. Alex wakes Claire up and tells her that she has to leave - that they are going to take the baby out tonight. He comment was “He’ll kill you. You’re going to die.” I wonder if that is the same “him” that Zeke referenced? Next thing we know Claire is outside asleep.

Flashback #5
Last one. Claire is just waking up when Danielle stumbles upon her. Claire wants to go back to Ethan and give him her baby. Danielle is trying to shut her up as the “Others” circle in closer. As a measure of last defense Danielle clobbers Claire with a rifle butt and drags her back to an area near the caves where Claire is discovered by Boone and Locke.

Here is the bombshell posting that you have all been waiting for - Libby is a plant. Here are the reasons why I believe this to be the case.

In the episode titled “The Other 48 Days” we learn about the tail section of the airplane. The opening scenes show the crash. Libby is introduced to us then. She is warm, compassionate, a real take charge person (she resets a guy’s broken leg). She also is responsible for taking care of the children.

The second attack from the Others it appears that Libby was still watching the kids. She is the first to report their absence. She then also notices that Nancy is gone.

Libby then suggests that they all move off the beach and into the jungle. She and Goodwin both agree on that plan.

Libby then later confides in Ana Lucia by saying, “Back at the beach — the night they came back — you said that Nathan was gone for 2 hours? That he was missing? Creeps me out, Ana. Do you really think it’s possible that one of us is one of them?” This validated Ana Lucia’s belief that Nathan as the plant - not Goodwin.

When debating about whether Nathan is one of the Others Libby says, “He never talks about himself, Nathan. Every time I ask him anything, he just dodges.”

Of course, we find out later that Nathan was not one of the Others but in fact Goodwin was. Transcript from the Episode

OK - so she is a bad judge of character in terms of Nathan and just happened to be the adult that was watching after the kids when they were abducted.

How about last night’s episode? When talking to Hurley something peculiar happens. Hurley thinks that he knows Libby from somewhere. Libby changes the subject. She then responds that they met on the plane when Hurley stepped on her foot while he boarded the plane. She remembers Hurley was the last one on the plane. Hurley does not seem to remember stepping on Libby’s foot.

So, how does all this point to Libby being one of the Others? The big clue in my opinion was that Hurley stepped on Libby’s foot while boarding the plane. We know that Libby was in the tail section of the plane when it crashed. Hurley was not. If Hurley was the last person on the plane and we know he sat in the mid section how did he step on her foot?

Couple of thoughts on how Hurley might have stepped on her foot - one is she was in the back of the plane when the plane fell apart but her seat may have been somewhere else. She could have been waiting for the restroom or visiting with someone at a different seat location. Another, Hurley may have had to stow his carry-on luggage in the back of the plane if the overhead bins were all full near his seat. One other point - Hurley may know Libby from the psych ward since she did say she was a clinical psychologist.

While it is possible that Libby is just like everyone else, I doubt it. She is part of the experiment and that is where Hurley knows her from.

Faithful reader Mike emailed me with some interesting information using Google Earth (which, by the way, if you haven’t used it yet you are really missing out). Anyway, he drew a 1200 mile diameter around coastal Nigeria to see how far the plane could go prior to it crashing on our island. There is an island called Annonbon that showed up. The island appears to have similar topographical and fauna to what our island is showing. Click HERE for a great picture of the island.

Of course, the problem is that this island and islands around it aren’t anywhere near the South Pacific. So this leads us to one of the major questions so far. How did our Lostie’s end up off of Africa OR how did the Nigerian plane end up in the South Pacific?

Here is what we know: The corporate headquarters for the Hanso Foundation appear to be in Denmark. However, from the cease and desist letter from the GHO, the writer references an Off-Shore facility on the island of Zanzibar (click HERE for the Zanzibar site). They reference this island because of a recent disease that is breaking out in the Congo. The GHO believes whatever is happening on this island led to the outbreak of the disease in the Congo (similar plot line to the Jurassic Park books - though not the movies).

Zanzibar and the surrounding islands are well within the range of our drug smuggling airplane. The climate and topography of the island are also very similar to our Lost island. Is it possible that, like Jurassic Park, Zanzibar is where the main facilities are BUT another more remote island is where our Losties are stuck?

This suggestion makes even more sense if you buy into the theory that our Losties have had their memory modified. If their memories were implanted then they didn’t leave from Australia - the island doesn’t have to be in the South Pacific.

Since I am a big believer in this theory I am now making my official prediction - our island is somewhere off the East Coast of Tanzania near the island of Zanzibar.

We know from the last episode that it appears Michael and Walt are communicating via the terminal in the Swan hatch. However, look more carefully and you will see how problematic that is.

First, we start with the fact that Desmond in over 3 years didn’t have anyone to chat with on the computer. When asked, he responded by saying that all he did was enter the code every 108 minutes.

Second, the first time Michael sits down to the computer, literally within a minute or two, the screen comes alive with what appears to be Walt.

Third, Michael a second time takes a shift in the hatch. He makes sure everyone is out of the hatch and then bangs on the keyboard, nothing happens. He then says, “Where are you?”. The computer promptly fires up and dialog between Michael and Walt starts.

Fourth, Walt types 107 words a minute without a mistake.

Fifth, when Jack comes around to talk to Michael the screen is blank.

Now, those are the facts based off what we have seen. Now let me explain some of my issues.

First, Walt would have to be at a location with a terminal that can connect to the swan station. On top of that, he would have to access the machine without whoever knowing (or at least that’s what we’re led to believe). Next, he somehow knows when Michael is sitting at the terminal since the other computer ALWAYS initiates the conversation. Then Michael turned off the monitor when Jack walked around to see the screen - without Jack or us - seeing him do it. Finally, this communication occurs after we find out that explicit instructions forbid the use of the computer for anything other than entering the numbers.

That’s a lot of if’s.

How about a more simple approach? Michael is losing it. Whether it’s through grief, fatigue, or some illness, Michael is just imagining the text appearing on the screen.

Here’s another one … the “Others” or the scientists are pretending to be Walt. Knowing that posing as Walt could lure Michael away from the group this tends to make sense. The problem is why would they want Michael? They could have taken him when they took Walt. I don’t really have a good answer to that.

Anyway, there you have it. A little analysis on what I think is going on with the computer.

The preceding post discussed what we know about the monster. Now let’s talk theories.

There are two competing thoughts on this. One is the “Pull” method while I labeled the other the “Push” method.

The two methods refer to whether the monster is extracting/pulling data from Echo or whether the monster is implanting/pushing memories. They are vastly different theories that present different problems.

On the Pull method we see the monster as something that is able to read our minds. It can extract information from our minds in the form of images. What the monster is doing with that information is anyone’s guess. Is it reporting back to the “Others” information about that person? Is the monster even under control of the Others? Could the monster have been originally contained and then somehow gotten out and now does its own thing?

The Push method is the better theory in my opinion. This theory states that the monster is putting those images into Echo’s head. Echo didn’t really have a brother that died on the drug airplane. That was a planted memory in Echo’s mind. Echo wasn’t really a drug dealer - again another planted memory.

Now, I believe that Echo and Locke weren’t afraid of the monster because it was familiar to them. They don’t know why or how or what it is - but for some reason they have no fear. I believe the monster was used initially to plant memories in Echo’s mind. The monster was used to modify the memories of all our Lostie’s. The flashbacks they have are simply planted memories to reinforce the experience of the island.

Think about it this way … is it more likely that Echo’s drug plane flew from Nigeria to this mysterious island and crashed or that there was a crashed plane on the island and Echo’s memory was adjusted to make the plane have a connection with Echo’s past? Did the island heal Locke’s disability or did Locke simply think he was disabled based off the false memory’s implanted? We do know that modifying someone’s memory is possible and has been done (under categories click on Psychology for some stories on that) in the past.

Finally, I can see a lot of power in being able to plant memories in people’s minds - this would support the Push theory. I have a hard time seeing how the random flashbacks in Echo’s life would really benefit any scientist on the island or the monster for that matter.

In the latest episode Mr. Echo comes face to face with the “monster”. He becomes the 2nd person that we know of that has seen it. There are several facts that are beyond dispute.

First, the monster appears to have great strength since trees fly out of the ground when it appears, trees are pushed around as it travels through the forest (think back to Season 1) and it was strong enough to capture Locke and drag him down a hole.

Second, the monster does not appear to have any mass. If you had to describe the monster most would agree that looked like a cloud of smoke.

Third, the monster was intelligent. The monster moved with purpose, changing it’s shape.

Fourth, the monster showed images from Echo’s past. We don’t know what Locke saw at this point.

Fifth, neither Locke nor Echo appeared scared. Locke went on to say that what he saw was beautiful. Echo, when asked, said he was not afraid.

Found an interesting website about flight traveling plans. You can put in 2 destinations and the site will show you the prefered air traffic route.

I tried leaving from a random aiport in Nigeria and head over to Australia. The course plotted was a generally southern course that cut well below India and then swung back up to Sydney.

I then tried from Nigeria to Santiago, Chile (the furthest away country in South America). That flight flew directly across the Atlantic over Brazil and into Chile.

The reason why this is so interesting is that we know approximately where our Lostie’s are. They were 3,000 miles or so on their way between Sydney and LA when they changed course for about 1,000 miles heading towards Fiji. That drops them right smack in the middle of nowhere.

My point is, this plane would to have been waaaaaay off course if it ended up on our island. There is no reason, no destination, that makes sense for a travel route for this plane.

Is this another example of a planted memory? I think so.

Here is the link if you want to try some travel routes yourself: Air Traffic Routes

More validation of the memory implant theory …

Locke in season 1 had a dream that included 2 distinct visions. One was that of the Beechcraft crashing into a specific location on the island. The other was of Boone talking about his housekeeper going up the stairs and down the stairs.

How can we explain this?

Locke can see into the past ~ Locke would have to be able to see into the Island’s past (for the plane crash) and into Boone’s past (for the housekeeper). Possible, not very likely.

Or how about the memory was implanted? Boone never had a housekeeper to begin with. That memory was planted in Boone. Locke didn’t dream it - rather his memory was triggered to make him think it was a dream when in fact he was simply recalling a memory.

Great episode … one of my favorites. I won’t discuss the general plotline - you have all seen the episode. Rather, here are the items that I found interesting.

1. This is really a rehash of earlier episodes … just never thought of it before. We have a dozen or so survivors that the show focuses on. One of them is a druggie - not just any type of druggie but a heroine addict. Herione that is taken orally. Now, what are the odds that a plane smuggling heroine crashes on our mysterious island and that Charlie is one of the few people who know about it and discover the drugs?

2. When Echo hears about the statue from Claire he immediately suspects it’s his drugs. Why would he do that? Last thing he knew was that his drug plane was leaving Nigeria. Would you naturally assume that because someone has a statue of the Virgin Mary that it is the statue from Nigeria?

3. For what it’s worth - when Locke is setting the combination to the gun room we see him turn the combination to 25 and then 29. Actually, this isn’t worth much.

4. Locke makes a comment to Michael about silent movies. Michael tells Locke he doesn’t think Locke is old enough to watch silent movies. Locke then says, “I am old enough.” This may be nothing but in light of the Hanso Foundation Life Extension program (which apparently worked) I wonder if there is a connection. Is Locke “older” than we think he is.

5. Locke showing Michael how to use a gun was pretty funny. Michael manages to hit a Costco size jar of mayo from about 20 feet away. Hurray … we have a sniper on our hands. It would have been humiliating had he missed.

6. Where in the world was the drug plane going? Leaving Nigeria I can’t imagine how it ended up in the South Pacific. I’m going to research plane routes and distances in a later post. Watch for that.

7. OK - the highlight of the show. If you ever needed to justify the expense of TIVO, HD, and a Plasma here it is. Echo sees the Monster. I am now convinced more than ever it is a nano swarm (do a search on my blog for other posts on nanotechnology). What was interesting was what appeared in the swarm as Mr. Echo was looking at it. Without TIVO it would probably be impossible to see. Slowing things down to 1/16 speed here is what I saw:

A. Face - couldn’t make out who
B. Church with a cross on top
C. Another face - couldn’t tell who it was but it appeared to have a head-wrap or hat on
D. The head of the man that Echo shot as a child
E. Woman carrying a basket on her head
F. His brother’s face
G. Appeared to be a woman in a floral print … may have also been army guy in camo - hard to tell
H. Holding his brother right after the brother was shot (shows this twice)
I: Crucifix

All that happened in less than 8 seconds and again there may be stuff that I missed. It is a very fair assumption that each of these images were from Echo’s life (although one of my major theories is that these are all implanted memories that are not real). Anyway, more to come on this topic as it deserves it’s own post.

UPDATE: Click HERE to see the images blown up and brightness adjusted. I think they missed a few but at least you can see what the images look like.

8. After the monster appeared Charlie asks why Echo didn’t move - wasn’t he afraid of it. Echo’s response was “I was not afraid of it.” That begs the question why not? The thing was uprooting trees and making a very disturbing sound. The reason he wasn’t afraid … Mr. Echo had seen it before. I don’t think he could place it exactly but for some reason he knew there was no reason to be afraid. Remember Locke is the only other person to come face to face with it. He too was not afraid. In fact his quote was that he saw into the eye of the island and what he saw was beautiful.

9. Another weird thing … right after the swarm left Echo is back to hunting down the plane. Didn’t spend more than 10 seconds thinking about what he just saw. Anyone else notice that he was in a trance like state once the swarm came up to his face?

10. Michael gets his alone time on the computer. He pounds away at the keyboard to no avail. Then he asks “Where are you?”. Immediately the computer fires up with a “message” from Walt. By the way, the only other time someone has used the phrase “Where are you?” (at least that I can remember) was Jack. That was right after Jack saw his deceased dad strolling through the jungle. I think Jack’s dad’s image is very similar to Walt’s (post kidnapping).

11. For those that missed the computer chat between Father and Son here is what the chat looked like. Anytime you see “>:” that would indicate a message from Michael. If the text is not preceded with those characters then the message is coming from Walt (or someone/something posing as Walt).

Dad?
>: Are you O K?
Yes.
Are you alone?
>: Yes.
Can’t talk long. They’re coming back soon.
>: Where are you?
You need to com

There appears to be some text that Michael reads before Jack comes in. However, we don’t see it.

Why would Walt care if his dad was alone?

12. Walt is a speed typer. He manages to type “Can’t talk long. They’re coming back soon.” all in 4 seconds (7 words in 4 seconds would come out to 105 words per minute). First time I tried it took me 7 seconds. I type close to 60 words a minutes. Not too shabby for Walt, a ten year old boy, who hasn’t been near a computer for a month. Blazing speed and no typos. Hmmm.

13. From my wife … she doesn’t think there is anything on the computer screen. Her opinion - Michael is imagining the conversations. Remember when Jack comes around there is nothing on the monitor. Michael could have turned off the monitor - but we don’t see him do it. That would also explain why the chatting starts right away when Michael gets at the computer and why no one else has seen the chatting. Previews for next week appear to show Michael losing it taking out Locke and forcing an armed manhunt to bring Michael back.

14. The next few are more trivial and have nothing to do with advancing the plot line. However, I thought they were funny. Starting with Echo hugging a decomposed corpse. I know it’s his brother and all but seriously … I broke the news to my wife that if I had the chance I would not hug her decomposed body.

15. Why torch the plane? Last check starting a fire surrounded by jungle appears to be a recipe for disaster. Along the same line - isn’t there anything in that plane that was worth salvaging? Sayid is like an A-Team member - he can make a toaster out of scrap metal. There had to be something on that plane worthy of saving.

16. Anyone wonder where all the tarps come from? Seems like everyone has one for their shelter (or multiple tarps for each shelter). I travel by plane all of the time and I can honestly say I have never packed a tarp. I have never seen anyone else pack a tarp. Maybe airplanes are filled with tarps in the baggage area in the event of plane crash on a deserted island in the South Pacific?

That’s it for now. Additional posts on topics from the episode will include:
Mr. Echo’s experience with the swarm - What do we know about the monster?
Beechcrafts - how far they can go
Air travel routes to likely drug drop-off destinations
Is that really Walt talking to Michael

Not sure how this impacts the story but there is a problem …

In the 2nd episode Sayid is able to pick up Danielle’s distress call which has been running on a loop (or in iterations). There were 7,294,531 iterations. Sayid does the math and says that the recording plays for about 30 seconds - that translates to 16 years and 5 months. Here is the transcript

The problem is Sayid’s math and stopwatch are both wrong. At 30 seconds there would actually be 17.6 years that have passed. However, the bigger issue is that the recording was not 30 seconds long. I counted 20 seconds. That would put Danielle on the island for 11.7 years. Also, we are assuming the counter started at 0. I don’t know anything about distress calls but I do know that in databases, model numbers, series numbers, etc you often don’t start with the number 0. If the counter started at 1million (as an example) then Danielle was only on the island for a little over 10 years.

Anyway, the point is that our time estimate for Danielle is off - by about 5 years at least. Did Sayid make the mistake? Did the writers? Or, is it really important to know that it hasn’t been 16 years? Only time will tell.

Pretty simple question … right?

Episode 10 from Season 1: Hurley is taking a census after Claire was attacked. In speaking with Shannon he asks for some basic information. Her response is:

“You want my information. Name: Shannon Rutherford, Age: 20, Address: Craphole Island.” Transcript

OK - easy enough- Shannon is 20. But …

Shannon’s dad died in Jack’s ER room. He was 57 at the time. Transcript
It was at that time when Jack bumped into Desmond running the stairs. Desmond was training for “A race around the world. Impressive, I know.” –same transcript

So far so good. Now we just need to know how old Shannon was when her dad died in that accident. That text for that comes in the episode titled “Abandoned” Transcript
Here is the answer when Boone pours Shannon a drink of alcohol after the funeral. She says, “I’m 18, Boone. Your mom’s going to freak.”

So, it looks like 2 years (and maybe a few months) have passed between Shannon’s father’s death and her being stranded on the island. But then there is this …

We go back to Desmond. Desmond is being quizzed by Jack as to how Desmond ended up in the hatch. Desmond’s answer was, “It was 3 years ago. I was on a solo race around the world, and my boat crashed into the reef, and then Kelvin came.” Transcript

So, Desmond places the death of Shannon’s dad some time further back than 3 years ago.

Either Shannan lied about her age or … Desmond lost track of time or … they all are being experimented upon by having memories implanted. Those memories sometimes cause inconsistencies.

A few more points about this two year period.

Between the time when Shannon was 18 and 20 Jack had operated on his future wife. She had gone through her extensive rehab. She and Jack became engaged. Then they were married. Finally, something else happened to where Jack and his wife are no longer together (divorce/death?). That’s a lot to happen in 2 years.

On Shannon’s side she was living in the states at 18 with no money. Yet, in the next two years she has moved to France for at least 1 year and has had 3 boyfriends that Boone has paid off in order to have them break-up with his sister. Oh, and she was married somewhere in there as well. We just don’t know for how long.

Finally, for Desmond he must have concluded his training, started his solo race, and traveled as far as the mystery island. All of that was supposed to have concluded prior to his crash on the island 3 years ago.

My bet is that at least 4 years have passed between Shannon’s dad dying and our Lostie’s ending up on the island.

This comes to us from Patti - our ever astute Lost fan. In researching Dharma she found the following:

Everyone wants to be happy and no one wants to suffer, but very few people understand the real causes of happiness and suffering. We tend to look for happiness outside ourself, thinking that if we had the right house, the right car, the right job and the right friends we would truly be happy. We spend almost all our time adjusting to the external world, trying to make it conform to our wishes. All our life we have tried to surround ourself with people and things that make us feel comfortable, secure, or stimulated, yet still we have not found pure and lasting happiness.

It is time we sought happiness from a different source. Happiness is a state of mind, so the real source of happiness must lie within the mind, not in external conditions. If our mind is pure and peaceful we shall be happy, regardless of our external circumstances, but if it is impure and unpeaceful we can never be truly happy, no matter how hard we try to change our external conditions. We could change our home or our partner countless times, but until we change our restless, discontented mind we shall never find true happiness.

Full excerpt is found Here.

So, relating to Lost how could this tie in? In the orientation film there was mention of creating a utopian society. When I think of a utopian society I think of a society where there is no crime, everyone lives well, people contribute to the community and feel good about themselves. To date that type of society has never existed. Even if an individual can achieve that level of peace - how can you create a whole community that shares in the experience with you?

My thoughts … what if utopia was a frame of mind that you could be drawn into through drugs, hyponotism, therapy, etc. Instead of creating a community type utopia could you create a utopia in someone’s mind? Regardless of what is going on around them - could someone remain in a perpetual state of happiness? There could be violence and poverty, yet to the person in utopia they are oblivious to what is really going on. They see the world only as utopia. Think about this concept like anti-depressants on steriods. A constant state of utopian bliss. Again - quoting from the Dharma website: Happiness is a state of mind, so the real source of happiness must lie within the mind, not in external conditions.

Food for thought.

The Manchurian Candidate was originally a novel written in the late 50’s. The novel then became a classic movie that reviewed the power of brainwashing in creating the perfect assassin.

Further information on the CIA brainwashing program is hard to come by. The programs, known as BLUEBIRD and MKULTRA, ran officially from 1950 to 1964 (how long the programs ran unofficially nobody knows for sure). It appears that in 1973 Senate investigators wanted to know more about these defunct programs. Rather than disclose the classified information the CIA destroyed records relating to MKULTRA.

It appears that the CIA used both willing volunteers as well as unsuspecting American citizens. These individuals were drugged and hypnotized. One such example that came out of the testing proved very chilling. The story goes like this:

A woman who had shown an aversion to using firearms was hypnotized. She was instructed that upon waking she would pick up a gun and shoot another woman participant. After shooting the woman she would fall back to sleep. Woman “X” woke up, took the gun and shot Woman “Y” with an empty gun. Woman “X” then fell back to sleep. Upon waking she was told that she had used a gun to shoot Woman “Y”. She refused to believe that she had engaged in that type of activity. Woman “X” had no recollection of using the gun.

The benefits of creating this type of assassin are abundant. First, the killer has no memory of the event making interrogation useless. The killer also would show no signs of remorse, guilt, or even concern of getting caught. The assassin would not care if he were caught - ramifications for his action mean nothing to him.

There are numerous examples that clearly demonstrate the mind control occured at least on some level. Participants would kill (or at least think they were killing), they could carry out complex sets of instructions that could span days, and the mind control could work on children as well as adults. In each case, upon waking, the time spent under mind control was erased from their memory.

There are some great websites that go into detail about Mind Control. Want To Know Info, Building the Manchurian Candidate book excerpt and The Drug Library.

What does this have to with Lost? Think about the potential of our Lostie’s going through this type of a program. Could Locke have been trained on hunting/wilderness survival and then had that memory erased? Or, how about the Others? Are they human test subjects that are given instructions to perform certain activities? Was someone like Ethan simply carrying out orders for someone else? Did Ethan really seem like he wanted Claire for personal reasons? Anyway, food for thought.

Minor quibble in the writing or is this part of the clues that we are supposed to be looking out for?

There appears to be a discrepancy in the amount of time the Losties were in the air. Several accounts below tell different stories.

In “The Other 48 Days” Ana Lucia becomes suspicious that Nathan (a fellow surivor) is in fact one of the Others. Her suspicions are solidified when he disappears into the jungle to go and releave himself. Ana justifying herself to Bernard for throwing Nathan in a pit then says, “We were in the air for 2 hours - I didn’t see him once - not once.”

Earlier in that same episode Cindy mentions that, “Before the crash, the pilot said we’d lost communication; we were turning back. We were flying for two hours in the wrong direction. ”
Click Here for the transcript.

Was it 2 hours in the air or 2 hours of flying in the wrong direction?

In the Pilot episode Jack, Kate and Charlie search for the nose section of the plane - looking for the transceiver. They come across the pilot of the plane. His account of the events are: “6 hours in. Our radio went out, no one could see us. We turned back to land in Fiji, by the time we hit turbulence we were 1000 miles off course. They’re looking for us in the wrong place.”
Click Here for the transcript.

The Pilot’s version is in line with Cindy’s story. A plane like that would travel around 500mph at a cruising altitude. That would put them 4 hours (and approx 2000 miles) between Sydney and LA when they lost contact with the ground. Then they changed course and started back to Fiji and flew in that direction for 2 hours.

Was Ana Lucia wrong? Seems to me that someone would know the difference between 6 hours in the air compared to 2. Also, since the statements contradicted themselves in the same episode I cannot accept that somehow this flaw got through the editing process. I believe that we were supposed to discover that there was a flaw in the timeline.

Now we know that there is a discrepancy of hours, how would you feel about a discrepancy of days? That post is coming soon.

The Manchurian Candidate was a great movie from the early 60’s depicting the horrors of brainwashing on American troops by Chinese scientists. The story goes like this:

A group of soldiers are captured during the Korean war. They are brought in and brainwashed using very experimental treatments. The brainwashing is so complete that one US soldier shoots another US soldier simply because he was asked to. There was no remorse, no thought, no conscience in the act.

The soldiers were brainwashed to believe that they were not in fact captured. Rather, one member of their group, Raymond Shaw, personally saved the lives of the men. The men were programmed, that when asked, that Raymond Shaw was the best person they ever knew. The problem was that the guys didn’t really like Raymond. Yet the programming was complete that they couldn’t help but respond with what a great guy Raymond was. The brainwashing so successful that there was no doubt about what happened. They had no recollection whatsoever about being captured and brainwashed.

Psychological warfare has been around for hundreds, if not thousands of years. The battle with the mind takes many forms. Common examples used today include solitary confinement, severe and prolonged interrogations, and denial of any outside stimuli (like reading materials, TV, or radio). These techniques alone can often times create false memories of events.

During the Cold War however, the experiments became more sinister. Suddenly, breaking down a person wasn’t about extracting information, it was changing the reality that the individual felt. Much like the fictional Manchurian Candidate, the CIA, KGB and other intelligence agencies toyed with people’s memories through indoctrination, drugs, and intense therapy.

Official information from these programs is scarce. However, there is some agreement that the experiments never proved effective enough to implement on a broad scale. There was no “full-proof” way to create false memories.

Getting back to Lost … is it possible that the Hanso Foundation was also interested in the potential of altering someone’s memory? It appears that Hanso made his money selling weapons to NATO. Is it also possible that his scientific team resumed earlier attempts at this mind control? Let’s just say that they have unlocked the mystery about memory control. What are some potential ramifications?

Take Locke as an example. So far, from what we know from his flashbacks he was orphaned, raised in a modest environment. By his early 30’s (just a guess on my part) we see him working in a toy store. A little later he is working in a box company as a low level employee. He was involved in an accident or suffered from a disease that limited his ability to walk. He sounds depressed, unstable, and definitely a social outcast.

Now meet the Locke of the island. He can walk. He is a leader. He is a master hunter including an expert in knife throwing. He is wise. He is upbeat. He also cleans assualt weapons found in the hatch and knows how to use one. Without his flashback sequences there would be little doubt that Locke is ex-military/law enforcement, etc. There are allusions to the fact that Locke kind of knows what is going on. Like he has been on the island before.

So, what if Locke’s flashbacks are all implanted memories? What if he had been on the island, trained by the military? What if he could always walk? Would his character now seem more consistent?

You could go down the list of people on the island. Did Kate really kill anyone? Is Hurley really a muti-millionare by playing those crazy numbers on the state lotto. Did Claire’s psychic really see into the future?

There are clues that everyone on the island is brainwashed about what really happened. See the plane crash post for an example of this. Later posts will also point out potential areas of where brainwashing could have taken place.

One of the major areas of concern is the plane crash. For the sake of argument, let’s assume that the people in the plane had to end up on this very specific island. It’s their destiny, as Locke would say. In order for that to happen here is what would be required:

1. Round up everyone from around the world that is supposed to end up on the plane and get them on a single flight
2. Knock out the planes communication to the ground after so many hours of flight
3. Know that the pilots would turn around at exactly the right moment, changing course to a flight path that leads to the island
4. Hit a pocket a turbulance that is so severe that it breaks the plane into thirds
5. All three pieces of the plane must land on the island (which appears, although we don’t know for sure) to be 5-10 miles wide
6. 50+ people must survive a crash where the plane breaks up at over 30,000ft
7. Jack survives even though he wakes up laying on his back in the middle of a field - no seat or anything else to break the fall
8. Remarkably, the survivors by and large survive the crash with very little injury (no one was permanently disabled or lost limbs or suffered any back injuries)

What are the odds of all that happening?

Throw in the fact that over the past 30 years there is not 1 single example of anyone surviving a commercial airplane crash where the plane broke up at such altitudes. This link is a database of every commercial crash since 1920. You will find that planes breaking up in the air does happen. Surviving the breakup does not. Plane Crash Database

So, what really happened? Why did all of the passengers believe they were in a crash? They all remember the same thing (kind of - another topic for another day). One things for sure - if all these people needed to be on this island they sure picked the hard way to make it happen.