Bill’s Lost Site

March 27, 2006

To Push The Button Or Not?

Filed under: Psychology

A real interesting article written over on the Lost Blog that discusses whether pushing the button is simply an experiment or if the button actually does something.

One of the better articles on this really important topic. The article can be accessed HERE. Here is a brief excerpt to give you a flavor for the excellent writing:

How to decide then? In decision theory, especially when faced with a decision to be made under uncertainty, the rational procedure is to identify all possible outcomes, determine their values (positive or negative) and the probabilities that will result from each course of action, and multiply the two to give an expected value. The action to be chosen should be the one that gives rise to the highest total expected value.

This was invoked by the famous French mathematician and philospher Blaise Pascal, in what has come to be known as Pascal’s wager. Basically, Pascal’s uncertainty was the existence of God. Belief or non-belief in God is the decision to be made. Pascal posited that the reward for belief in God if God actually does exist is infinite. Therefore, however small the probability of God’s existence, the expected value of belief exceeds that of non-belief, so it is better to believe in God.

And so on … give the article a shot. I think you will really enjoy it! Thanks Job for the great ideas.

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